2015年3月25日讯 /生物谷BIOON/--如果有人问，什么决定了一家生物医药公司的未来？答案很简单：药物！一家公司可能因为其明星药物的大卖而横扫市场从而跻身世界制药巨头之列；也有可能因为一次重要临床三期研究的失败而导致股票暴跌，投资者纷纷敬而远之。可以说，一种药物自从开始研究之时就吸引了市场乃至世界的关注。因此，生物医药产业分析人士最津津乐道的就是预计一种药物上市后的销售额峰值。
最近，著名的汤森路透社就对2015年即将获得批准的药物制定了一个排行榜，并预计了榜单上的药物在2019年时能够达到的销售峰值。而根据路透社的这份榜单显示，百时施贵宝、赛诺菲和诺华公司或将成为未来几年最大的赢家。
路透社预计，百时施贵宝公司开发的PD-1抑制剂药物Opdivo、Regeneron公司开发的抗PCSK9胆固醇药物Praluent以及诺华公司开发的治疗心脏病药物LCZ696摘取了前三名的位置。而这三种药物分别对应了当下研究最为火爆的肿瘤治疗、恶性胆固醇以及心脏病等三大领域。由于这三种疾病已经逐渐成为人类健康面临的头号大敌，因而也受到了世界各国的高度关注。
施贵宝公司开发的PD-1抑制剂药物Opdivo可以说开辟了肿瘤治疗领域的新时代。2015年初， Opdivo获得FDA的扩大适应症用于治疗肺癌的批准。此前，FDA已经在去年批准Opdivo用于治疗黑色素瘤（相关阅读：四个工作日！施贵宝公司肿瘤新药Opdivo获批速度创纪录）。所谓PD-1药物，既最近几年兴起的，针对肿瘤细胞PD-1通路为靶点设计的药物。顾名思义，这种药物能够特异性的阻断肿瘤细胞的PD-1通路，而后者则是肿瘤细胞逃避检验点检测的重要手段之一。根据施贵宝提供的临床三期研究显示，相比于传统的阿霉素化疗疗法，Opdivo能够显着提高患者的总体生存率。基于这些原因，路透社认为Opdivo2019年销售额将达到57亿美元，成为当之无愧的王者。
Regeneron公司和赛诺菲公司合作开发的anti-PSCK9药物Praluent排在第二位，预计其2019年销售额约为44亿美元。Praluent也代表着抗恶性胆固醇药物的兴起。一直以来，科学界和产业界都试图通过降低患者LDL的水平来减少患者患上心血管疾病的风险。
而诺华公司开发的心脏病药物以37亿美元的销售额位列第三。
这也是这份榜单中仅有的预计销售额超过30亿美元的药物。此外，安进公司开发的evolocumab、辉瑞公司开发的Ibrance 等药物也都榜上有名。
详细英文报道：
Thomson Reuters is predicting a big year for blockbuster drugs. Its analysts forecast 11 drugs approved this year will go on to rack up blockbuster sales in 2019, with new treatments from Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY), Sanofi ($SNY) and Novartis ($NVS) leading the pack.
The top three drugs on the list are going after indications with big populations, namely cancer, high cholesterol and heart failure. Bristol's PD-1 inhibitor Opdivo is tipped to comfortably outsell the rest of the class of 2015. Thomson Reuters forecasts Opdivo sales will total $5.7 billion in 2019, almost 30% more than Sanofi and Regeneron's ($REGN) hotly tipped anti-PCSK9 cholesterol fighting drug, Praluent. The $4.4 billion analysts expect Praluent to generate was enough to give it second place ahead of Novartis' heart failure drug, LCZ696.
Behind the top three--which are the only drugs on the list tipped to top $3 billion in sales--comes a fairly long tail of more modest blockbusters. The rest of the list includes Amgen's ($AMGN) pitch for the anti-PCSK9 market, the latest iteration of Merck's ($MRK) Gardasil vaccine and Pfizer's ($PFE) recently approved breast cancer treatment, Ibrance. While inherent difficulties of making forecasts means the league table is more of a parlor game than something to bet the farm on, the target indications and sheer number of predicted blockbusters make an interesting contrast to last year.
Last year, just three drugs made the list of future blockbusters--Gilead's ($GILD) Sovaldi and Zydelig, plus GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK) and Theravance's ($THRX) Anoro Ellipta--which prompted talk of the decline of the $1 billion dollar drug and rise of orphan indications. This year, the list is stuffed with potential blockbusters, some of which are going after mass-market indications. How many of the drugs can fulfill their promise remains to be seen. Of last year's crop, Sovaldi is a clear success, but Anoro Ellipta has made a slow start and Zydelig has suffered setbacks in Europe.